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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Wednesday, 16 July 2025

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 8
  2. 19
  3. 26
  4. 28
  5. 31
  6. 33
  7. 2

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 1,226 of 1,359 under them

← 2025-07-12All recent draws2025-07-19 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed8 19 26 28 31 33 + 229 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 16 July 2025 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

58oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 58 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 63% of every possible ticket.

  • sum79th
  • odd50th
  • low21th
  • widest gap38th
  • neighbours21th
  • spread23th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 184 of each

8161times
19207times
26178times
28187times
31

Prize breakdown · 2025-07-16

  • Lines in play≈ 6.4Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$2.2Mto 212k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 62 winnerschance said 1.7

Where the money went

  • Match 644%NZ$1M
  • Match 418%NZ$406.2K
  • Match 3 + Bonus17%NZ$392.8K
  • 3 other tiers20%NZ$449K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 62≈ 1.7 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

188times
33181times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,225 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (8, 19, 28, 31) with the draw of 25 March 2023 — its closest relative in 1,225 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 94% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (12 July 2025): 8 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

145

The numbers add up to 145 — the 79th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. No two numbers side by side. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

33 had not appeared for 8 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 13% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$500,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus14≈ 9.9 by chanceNZ$14,460
  • Match 5278≈ 328 by chanceNZ$722
  • Match 4 + Bonus849≈ 819 by chanceNZ$54.00
  • Match 412,695≈ 13k by chanceNZ$32.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus17,855≈ 17k by chanceNZ$22.00
  • Match 3180,531≈ 181k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈6.4M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 + Bonus — 849 winners, 4% more than the 819 an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 62NZ$500,000
    Match 5 + Bonus14NZ$14,460
    Match 5278NZ$722
    Match 4 + Bonus849NZ$54.00
    Match 412,695NZ$32.00
    Match 3 + Bonus17,855NZ$22.00
    Match 3180,531NZ$0.00
    Totals212,224—