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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Saturday, 14 September 2024

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 3
  2. 15
  3. 18
  4. 22
  5. 31
  6. 32
  7. 27

JackpotNZ$1,000,002

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 1,139 of 1,359 under them

← 2024-09-11All recent draws2024-09-18 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed3 15 18 22 31 32 + 2729 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 14 September 2024 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

92oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 92 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 100% of every possible ticket.

  • sum47th
  • odd50th
  • low50th
  • widest gap48th
  • neighbours63th
  • spread43th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 171 of each

3160times
15190times
18166times
22180times
31

Prize breakdown · 2024-09-14

  • Lines in play≈ 7.9Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$2.6Mto 262k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 66 winnerschance said 2.1

Where the money went

  • Match 639%NZ$1M
  • Match 419%NZ$498.3K
  • Match 3 + Bonus19%NZ$495.5K
  • 3 other tiers22%NZ$564.4K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 66≈ 2.1 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

176times
32169times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,138 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (3, 15, 22, 31) with the draw of 25 September 2019 — its closest relative in 1,138 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 92% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (11 September 2024): 3, 15, 22 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

121

The numbers add up to 121 — the 46th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. Side-by-side numbers: 31–32. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

18 had not appeared for 15 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 13% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$166,667
  • Match 5 + Bonus12≈ 12 by chanceNZ$21,202
  • Match 5407≈ 406 by chanceNZ$620
  • Match 4 + Bonus930≈ 1.0k by chanceNZ$62.00
  • Match 415,573≈ 16k by chanceNZ$32.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus21,544≈ 22k by chanceNZ$23.00
  • Match 3223,883≈ 224k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈7.9M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 + Bonus — 930 winners, 8% fewer than the 1.0k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 66NZ$166,667
    Match 5 + Bonus12NZ$21,202
    Match 5407NZ$620
    Match 4 + Bonus930NZ$62.00
    Match 415,573NZ$32.00
    Match 3 + Bonus21,544NZ$23.00
    Match 3223,883NZ$0.00
    Totals262,355—