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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Wednesday, 17 January 2024

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 1
  2. 3
  3. 12
  4. 18
  5. 25
  6. 40
  7. 30

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 1,070 of 1,359 under them

← 2024-01-13All recent draws2024-01-20 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed1 3 12 18 25 40 + 3029 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 17 January 2024 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

46oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 46 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 33% of every possible ticket.

  • sum19th
  • odd50th
  • low79th
  • widest gap74th
  • neighbours21th
  • spread99th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 160 of each

1166times
3151times
12166times
18161times
25

Prize breakdown · 2024-01-17

  • Lines in play≈ 8.5Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$2.5Mto 286k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 62 winnerschance said 2.2

Where the money went

  • Match 640%NZ$1M
  • Match 419%NZ$483.3K
  • Match 3 + Bonus19%NZ$482.9K
  • 3 other tiers22%NZ$542.9K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 62≈ 2.2 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

170times
40161times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,069 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (3, 12, 25, 40) with the draw of 4 November 2017 — its closest relative in 1,069 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 91% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (13 January 2024): 12 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

99

The numbers add up to 99 — the 18th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. No two numbers side by side. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

3 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 10% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$500,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus13≈ 13 by chanceNZ$18,809
  • Match 5477≈ 441 by chanceNZ$508
  • Match 4 + Bonus1,144≈ 1.1k by chanceNZ$49.00
  • Match 417,900≈ 18k by chanceNZ$27.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus22,993≈ 24k by chanceNZ$21.00
  • Match 3243,047≈ 243k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈8.5M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 + Bonus — 1,144 winners, 4% more than the 1.1k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 62NZ$500,000
    Match 5 + Bonus13NZ$18,809
    Match 5477NZ$508
    Match 4 + Bonus1,144NZ$49.00
    Match 417,900NZ$27.00
    Match 3 + Bonus22,993NZ$21.00
    Match 3243,047NZ$0.00
    Totals285,576—