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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Saturday, 4 November 2023

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 10
  2. 11
  3. 12
  4. 23
  5. 24
  6. 25
  7. 6

JackpotNZ$999,999

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 1,049 of 1,359 under them

← 2023-11-01All recent draws2023-11-08 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed10 11 12 23 24 25 + 629 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 4 November 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

55oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 55 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 55% of every possible ticket.

  • sum25th
  • odd50th
  • low50th
  • widest gap38th
  • neighbours100th
  • spread2th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 157 of each

10165times
11145times
12160times
23178times
24

Prize breakdown · 2023-11-04

  • Lines in play≈ 8.3Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$2.5Mto 280k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 69 winnerschance said 2.2

Where the money went

  • Match 641%NZ$1M
  • Match 419%NZ$476.5K
  • Match 3 + Bonus19%NZ$459.9K
  • 3 other tiers22%NZ$532.5K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 69≈ 2.2 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

170times
25165times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,048 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (10, 11, 12, 25) with the draw of 6 June 2020 — its closest relative in 1,048 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 91% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (1 November 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

105

The numbers add up to 105 — the 25th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. Side-by-side numbers: 10–11, 11–12, 23–24, 24–25. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

23 had not appeared for 9 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 6% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$111,111
  • Match 5 + Bonus29≈ 13 by chanceNZ$8,277
  • Match 5518≈ 428 by chanceNZ$460
  • Match 4 + Bonus1,177≈ 1.1k by chanceNZ$46.00
  • Match 417,648≈ 17k by chanceNZ$27.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus24,207≈ 23k by chanceNZ$19.00
  • Match 3235,918≈ 236k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈8.3M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 + Bonus — 1,177 winners, 10% more than the 1.1k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 69NZ$111,111
    Match 5 + Bonus29NZ$8,277
    Match 5518NZ$460
    Match 4 + Bonus1,177NZ$46.00
    Match 417,648NZ$27.00
    Match 3 + Bonus24,207NZ$19.00
    Match 3235,918NZ$0.00
    Totals279,506—