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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Wednesday, 11 October 2023

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 1
  2. 7
  3. 12
  4. 14
  5. 19
  6. 31
  7. 30

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 1,042 of 1,359 under them

← 2023-10-07All recent draws2023-10-14 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed1 7 12 14 19 31 + 3029 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 11 October 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

51oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 51 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 44% of every possible ticket.

  • sum7th
  • odd79th
  • low95th
  • widest gap48th
  • neighbours21th
  • spread50th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 156 of each

1163times
7150times
12158times
14142times
19

Prize breakdown · 2023-10-11

  • Lines in play≈ 7.0Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$2.2Mto 231k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 61 winnerchance said 1.8

Where the money went

  • Match 646%NZ$1M
  • Match 418%NZ$383.3K
  • Match 3 + Bonus17%NZ$373.8K
  • 3 other tiers19%NZ$420.6K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 61≈ 1.8 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

185times
31160times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,041 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (7, 12, 14, 31) with the draw of 1 June 2016 — its closest relative in 1,041 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 90% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (7 October 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

84

The numbers add up to 84 — the 7th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. No two numbers side by side. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

7 had not appeared for 16 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 5% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$1,000,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus12≈ 11 by chanceNZ$15,810
  • Match 5326≈ 359 by chanceNZ$577
  • Match 4 + Bonus856≈ 897 by chanceNZ$50.00
  • Match 414,741≈ 14k by chanceNZ$26.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus17,802≈ 19k by chanceNZ$21.00
  • Match 3197,695≈ 198k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈7.0M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 + Bonus — 17,802 winners, 7% fewer than the 19k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 61NZ$1,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus12NZ$15,810
    Match 5326NZ$577
    Match 4 + Bonus856NZ$50.00
    Match 414,741NZ$26.00
    Match 3 + Bonus17,802NZ$21.00
    Match 3197,695NZ$0.00
    Totals231,433—