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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Wednesday, 4 October 2023

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 8
  2. 13
  3. 14
  4. 19
  5. 23
  6. 26
  7. 6

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 1,040 of 1,359 under them

← 2023-09-30All recent draws2023-10-07 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed8 13 14 19 23 26 + 629 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 4 October 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

46oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 46 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 32% of every possible ticket.

  • sum23th
  • odd50th
  • low79th
  • widest gap1th
  • neighbours63th
  • spread5th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 156 of each

8141times
13154times
14141times
19184times
23

Prize breakdown · 2023-10-04

  • Lines in play≈ 10Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$1.9Mto 348k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 60 winnerschance said 2.7

Where the money went

  • Match 5 + Bonus16%NZ$302.8K
  • Match 432%NZ$601.5K
  • Match 3 + Bonus31%NZ$577.5K
  • 2 other tiers20%NZ$369K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 60≈ 2.7 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

177times
26158times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,039 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (8, 14, 19, 23) with the draw of 29 August 2020 — its closest relative in 1,039 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 90% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (30 September 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

103

The numbers add up to 103 — the 22th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. Side-by-side numbers: 13–14. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

14 had not appeared for 12 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 9% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$1,000,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus17≈ 16 by chanceNZ$17,814
  • Match 5547≈ 536 by chanceNZ$549
  • Match 4 + Bonus1,401≈ 1.3k by chanceNZ$49.00
  • Match 421,481≈ 21k by chanceNZ$28.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus28,876≈ 29k by chanceNZ$20.00
  • Match 3295,343≈ 295k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈10M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 + Bonus — 1,401 winners, 5% more than the 1.3k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 60NZ$1,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus17NZ$17,814
    Match 5547NZ$549
    Match 4 + Bonus1,401NZ$49.00
    Match 421,481NZ$28.00
    Match 3 + Bonus28,876NZ$20.00
    Match 3295,343NZ$0.00
    Totals347,665—