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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Saturday, 4 March 2023

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 11
  2. 19
  3. 21
  4. 25
  5. 34
  6. 35
  7. 9

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 979 of 1,359 under them

← 2023-03-01All recent draws2023-03-08 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed11 19 21 25 34 35 + 929 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 4 March 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

41oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 41 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 23% of every possible ticket.

  • sum79th
  • odd95th
  • low21th
  • widest gap19th
  • neighbours63th
  • spread19th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 147 of each

11138times
19172times
21146times
25150times
34

Prize breakdown · 2023-03-04

  • Lines in play≈ 7.7Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$2.6Mto 257k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 61 winnerchance said 2.0

Where the money went

  • Match 639%NZ$1M
  • Match 420%NZ$513.9K
  • Match 3 + Bonus19%NZ$490.3K
  • 3 other tiers22%NZ$570.6K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 61≈ 2.0 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

133times
35155times

Every number was expected about that many times after 978 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (19, 21, 34, 35) with the draw of 14 December 2019 — its closest relative in 978 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 89% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (1 March 2023): 34, 35 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

145

The numbers add up to 145 — the 79th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. Side-by-side numbers: 34–35. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

11 had not appeared for 8 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 20% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$1,000,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus5≈ 12 by chanceNZ$51,419
  • Match 5373≈ 397 by chanceNZ$684
  • Match 4 + Bonus990≈ 992 by chanceNZ$59.00
  • Match 415,116≈ 16k by chanceNZ$34.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus22,287≈ 21k by chanceNZ$22.00
  • Match 3218,608≈ 219k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈7.7M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 + Bonus — 22,287 winners, 5% more than the 21k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 61NZ$1,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus5NZ$51,419
    Match 5373NZ$684
    Match 4 + Bonus990NZ$59.00
    Match 415,116NZ$34.00
    Match 3 + Bonus22,287NZ$22.00
    Match 3218,608NZ$0.00
    Totals257,380—