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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Saturday, 21 May 2022

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 12
  2. 15
  3. 19
  4. 28
  5. 39
  6. 40
  7. 17

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 897 of 1,359 under them

← 2022-05-18All recent draws2022-05-25 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed12 15 19 28 39 40 + 1729 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 21 May 2022 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

75oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 75 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 95% of every possible ticket.

  • sum87th
  • odd50th
  • low50th
  • widest gap38th
  • neighbours63th
  • spread38th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 134 of each

12137times
15153times
19158times
28128times
39

Prize breakdown · 2022-05-21

  • Lines in play≈ 8.6Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$2.7Mto 287k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 61 winnerchance said 2.2

Where the money went

  • Match 638%NZ$1M
  • Match 420%NZ$531.2K
  • Match 3 + Bonus20%NZ$520.7K
  • 3 other tiers23%NZ$600.2K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 61≈ 2.2 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

130times
40134times

Every number was expected about that many times after 896 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (12, 15, 39, 40) with the draw of 7 November 2018 — its closest relative in 896 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 87% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (18 May 2022): nothing carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

153

The numbers add up to 153 — the 86th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. Side-by-side numbers: 39–40. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

40 had not appeared for 11 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.7× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 19% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$1,000,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus15≈ 13 by chanceNZ$18,041
  • Match 5401≈ 444 by chanceNZ$669
  • Match 4 + Bonus1,058≈ 1.1k by chanceNZ$58.00
  • Match 417,135≈ 18k by chanceNZ$31.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus23,666≈ 24k by chanceNZ$22.00
  • Match 3244,787≈ 245k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈8.6M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 + Bonus — 1,058 winners, 5% fewer than the 1.1k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 61NZ$1,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus15NZ$18,041
    Match 5401NZ$669
    Match 4 + Bonus1,058NZ$58.00
    Match 417,135NZ$31.00
    Match 3 + Bonus23,666NZ$22.00
    Match 3244,787NZ$0.00
    Totals287,063—