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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Wednesday, 14 October 2020

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 1
  2. 5
  3. 16
  4. 21
  5. 31
  6. 34
  7. 40

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 730 of 1,359 under them

← 2020-10-10All recent draws2020-10-17 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed1 5 16 21 31 34 + 4029 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 14 October 2020 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

63oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 63 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 76% of every possible ticket.

  • sum29th
  • odd79th
  • low50th
  • widest gap38th
  • neighbours21th
  • spread69th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 109 of each

1119times
594times
16107times
21108times
31

Prize breakdown · 2020-10-14

  • Lines in play≈ 5.2Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$2.1Mto 175k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 61 winnerchance said 1.4

Where the money went

  • Match 648%NZ$1M
  • Match 417%NZ$342.5K
  • Match 3 + Bonus16%NZ$340.7K
  • 3 other tiers19%NZ$382.7K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 61≈ 1.4 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

107times
3499times

Every number was expected about that many times after 729 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (5, 21, 31, 34) with the draw of 1 August 2018 — its closest relative in 729 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 81% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (10 October 2020): 1, 5, 31 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

108

The numbers add up to 108 — the 28th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. No two numbers side by side. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

21 had not appeared for 10 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 13% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$1,000,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus12≈ 8.2 by chanceNZ$14,382
  • Match 5275≈ 270 by chanceNZ$622
  • Match 4 + Bonus674≈ 674 by chanceNZ$58.00
  • Match 410,702≈ 11k by chanceNZ$32.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus14,811≈ 14k by chanceNZ$23.00
  • Match 3148,556≈ 149k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈5.2M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 + Bonus — 14,811 winners, 3% more than the 14k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 61NZ$1,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus12NZ$14,382
    Match 5275NZ$622
    Match 4 + Bonus674NZ$58.00
    Match 410,702NZ$32.00
    Match 3 + Bonus14,811NZ$23.00
    Match 3148,556NZ$0.00
    Totals175,031—