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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Saturday, 25 July 2020

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 10
  2. 11
  3. 12
  4. 28
  5. 38
  6. 40
  7. 33

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 707 of 1,359 under them

← 2020-07-22All recent draws2020-07-29 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed10 11 12 28 38 40 + 3329 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 25 July 2020 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

54oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 54 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 52% of every possible ticket.

  • sum72th
  • odd5th
  • low50th
  • widest gap80th
  • neighbours91th
  • spread50th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 106 of each

10114times
11100times
12109times
28102times
38

Prize breakdown · 2020-07-25

  • Lines in play≈ 13Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$3.5Mto 437k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 610 winnerschance said 3.4

Where the money went

  • Match 628%NZ$1M
  • Match 423%NZ$811.5K
  • Match 3 + Bonus22%NZ$788.4K
  • 3 other tiers26%NZ$911.2K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100kPrize each
  1. Match 610≈ 3.4 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

91times
40104times

Every number was expected about that many times after 706 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (10, 11, 28, 40) with the draw of 6 April 2019 — its closest relative in 706 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 80% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (22 July 2020): 10, 40 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

139

The numbers add up to 139 — the 72th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. Side-by-side numbers: 10–11, 11–12. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

28 had not appeared for 16 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 15% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$100,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus13≈ 21 by chanceNZ$31,555
  • Match 5632≈ 680 by chanceNZ$644
  • Match 4 + Bonus1,592≈ 1.7k by chanceNZ$59.00
  • Match 426,178≈ 27k by chanceNZ$31.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus34,278≈ 36k by chanceNZ$23.00
  • Match 3374,608≈ 375k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈13M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 5 — 632 winners, 7% fewer than the 680 an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 610NZ$100,000
    Match 5 + Bonus13NZ$31,555
    Match 5632NZ$644
    Match 4 + Bonus1,592NZ$59.00
    Match 426,178NZ$31.00
    Match 3 + Bonus34,278NZ$23.00
    Match 3374,608NZ$0.00
    Totals437,311—