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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Wednesday, 10 October 2018

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 2
  2. 4
  3. 9
  4. 12
  5. 13
  6. 37
  7. 16

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 520 of 1,357 under them

← 2018-10-06All recent draws2018-10-13 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed2 4 9 12 13 37 + 1629 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 10 October 2018 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

38oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 38 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 19% of every possible ticket.

  • sum4th
  • odd50th
  • low95th
  • widest gap99th
  • neighbours63th
  • spread82th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 78 of each

280times
473times
981times
1280times
13

Prize breakdown · 2018-10-10

  • Lines in play≈ 5.6Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$984.8Kto 186k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 60 winnerschance said 1.5

Where the money went

  • Match 5 + Bonus16%NZ$160.6K
  • Match 433%NZ$321.8K
  • Match 3 + Bonus31%NZ$306.6K
  • 2 other tiers20%NZ$195.8K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 60≈ 1.5 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

87times
3776times

Every number was expected about that many times after 519 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (4, 12, 13) with the draw of 5 September 2018 — its closest relative in 519 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (6 October 2018): 13 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

77

The numbers add up to 77 — the 4th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. Side-by-side numbers: 12–13. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

37 had not appeared for 18 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 13% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$1,000,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus3≈ 8.7 by chanceNZ$53,537
  • Match 5270≈ 287 by chanceNZ$590
  • Match 4 + Bonus676≈ 718 by chanceNZ$54.00
  • Match 411,494≈ 11k by chanceNZ$28.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus15,330≈ 15k by chanceNZ$20.00
  • Match 3158,271≈ 158k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈5.6M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 + Bonus — 676 winners, 6% fewer than the 718 an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 60NZ$1,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus3NZ$53,537
    Match 5270NZ$590
    Match 4 + Bonus676NZ$54.00
    Match 411,494NZ$28.00
    Match 3 + Bonus15,330NZ$20.00
    Match 3158,271NZ$0.00
    Totals0—