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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Wednesday, 17 August 2016

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 2
  2. 3
  3. 6
  4. 10
  5. 14
  6. 26
  7. 11

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 296 of 1,356 under them

← 2016-08-13All recent draws2016-08-20 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed2 3 6 10 14 26 + 1129 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 17 August 2016 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

38oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 38 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 19% of every possible ticket.

  • sum1th
  • odd5th
  • low95th
  • widest gap48th
  • neighbours63th
  • spread19th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 44 of each

241times
342times
640times
1037times
14

Prize breakdown · 2016-08-17

  • Lines in play≈ 5.5Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$964.6Kto 27k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 203lines took a prize
  • Match 60 winnerschance said 1.4

Where the money went

  • Match 516%NZ$156.5K
  • Match 433%NZ$316.4K
  • Match 3 + Bonus32%NZ$304.1K
  • 2 other tiers19%NZ$187.6K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 60≈ 1.4 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

50times
2648times

Every number was expected about that many times after 295 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (2, 3, 26) with the draw of 20 April 2016 — its closest relative in 295 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (13 August 2016): 26 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

61

The numbers add up to 61 — the 1th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. Side-by-side numbers: 2–3. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

2 had not appeared for 17 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.8× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 5% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$1,000,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus10≈ 8.6 by chanceNZ$15,050
  • Match 5297≈ 285 by chanceNZ$527
  • Match 4 + Bonus742≈ 713 by chanceNZ$50.00
  • Match 410,910≈ 11k by chanceNZ$29.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus15,204≈ 15k by chanceNZ$20.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈5.5M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 10,910 winners, 4% fewer than the 11k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 60NZ$1,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus10NZ$15,050
    Match 5297NZ$527
    Match 4 + Bonus742NZ$50.00
    Match 410,910NZ$29.00
    Match 3 + Bonus15,204NZ$20.00
    Match 30—
    Totals0—