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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Wednesday, 10 August 2016

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 4
  2. 5
  3. 11
  4. 14
  5. 31
  6. 36
  7. 39

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 294 of 1,356 under them

← 2016-08-06All recent draws2016-08-13 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed4 5 11 14 31 36 + 3929 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 10 August 2016 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

60oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 60 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 69% of every possible ticket.

  • sum21th
  • odd50th
  • low79th
  • widest gap85th
  • neighbours63th
  • spread62th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 44 of each

438times
537times
1134times
1449times
31

Prize breakdown · 2016-08-10

  • Lines in play≈ 4.1Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$1.9Mto 21k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 193lines took a prize
  • Match 61 winnerchance said 1.1

Where the money went

  • Match 651%NZ$1.0M
  • Match 416%NZ$310.5K
  • Match 3 + Bonus16%NZ$301.9K
  • 3 other tiers17%NZ$334.0K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 61≈ 1.1 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

46times
3644times

Every number was expected about that many times after 293 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (11, 31, 36) with the draw of 30 April 2016 — its closest relative in 293 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (6 August 2016): nothing carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

101

The numbers add up to 101 — the 20th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. Side-by-side numbers: 4–5. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

11 had not appeared for 23 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 12% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$1,000,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus5≈ 6.4 by chanceNZ$29,222
  • Match 5209≈ 210 by chanceNZ$727
  • Match 4 + Bonus486≈ 524 by chanceNZ$74.00
  • Match 49,133≈ 8.4k by chanceNZ$34.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus11,181≈ 11k by chanceNZ$27.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈4.1M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 9,133 winners, 9% more than the 8.4k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 61NZ$1,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus5NZ$29,222
    Match 5209NZ$727
    Match 4 + Bonus486NZ$74.00
    Match 49,133NZ$34.00
    Match 3 + Bonus11,181NZ$27.00
    Match 30—
    Totals0—