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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Wednesday, 4 November 2015

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 10
  2. 14
  3. 17
  4. 18
  5. 37
  6. 38
  7. 11

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 214 of 1,357 under them

← 2015-10-31All recent draws2015-11-07 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed10 14 17 18 37 38 + 1129 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 4 November 2015 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

44oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 44 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 28% of every possible ticket.

  • sum66th
  • odd21th
  • low79th
  • widest gap92th
  • neighbours91th
  • spread38th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 32 of each

1027times
1433times
1734times
1840times
37

Prize breakdown · 2015-11-04

  • Lines in play≈ 3.1Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$1.7Mto 15k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 203lines took a prize
  • Match 61 winnerchance said 0.80

Where the money went

  • Match 660%NZ$1M
  • Match 413%NZ$221.9K
  • Match 3 + Bonus13%NZ$212.3K
  • 3 other tiers14%NZ$235.7K
Tier1101001k10kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 61≈ 0.80 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

33times
3831times

Every number was expected about that many times after 213 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (10, 18, 38) with the draw of 4 July 2015 — its closest relative in 213 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (31 October 2015): 37 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

134

The numbers add up to 134 — the 65th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. Side-by-side numbers: 17–18, 37–38. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

10 had not appeared for 22 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.7× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 19% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$1,000,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus2≈ 4.8 by chanceNZ$51,496
  • Match 5130≈ 159 by chanceNZ$824
  • Match 4 + Bonus387≈ 398 by chanceNZ$66.00
  • Match 46,164≈ 6.4k by chanceNZ$36.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus8,490≈ 8.5k by chanceNZ$25.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈3.1M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 6,164 winners, 3% fewer than the 6.4k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 61NZ$1,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus2NZ$51,496
    Match 5130NZ$824
    Match 4 + Bonus387NZ$66.00
    Match 46,164NZ$36.00
    Match 3 + Bonus8,490NZ$25.00
    Match 30—
    Totals0—