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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Wednesday, 14 October 2015

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 9
  2. 15
  3. 19
  4. 21
  5. 26
  6. 30
  7. 11

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 208 of 1,357 under them

← 2015-10-10All recent draws2015-10-17 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed9 15 19 21 26 30 + 1129 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 14 October 2015 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

50oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 50 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 44% of every possible ticket.

  • sum46th
  • odd79th
  • low50th
  • widest gap3th
  • neighbours21th
  • spread10th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 31 of each

932times
1537times
1941times
2131times
26

Prize breakdown · 2015-10-14

  • Lines in play≈ 3.8Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$1.7Mto 19k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 203lines took a prize
  • Match 61 winnerchance said 0.99

Where the money went

  • Match 658%NZ$1M
  • Match 414%NZ$234.7K
  • Match 3 + Bonus13%NZ$229.9K
  • 3 other tiers15%NZ$252.8K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 61≈ 0.99 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

36times
3027times

Every number was expected about that many times after 207 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (9, 15, 19, 30) with the draw of 6 October 2012 — its closest relative in 207 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 37% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (10 October 2015): 30 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

120

The numbers add up to 120 — the 45th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. No two numbers side by side. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

21 had not appeared for 18 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.1× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 6% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$1,000,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus7≈ 5.9 by chanceNZ$15,783
  • Match 5180≈ 196 by chanceNZ$638
  • Match 4 + Bonus529≈ 490 by chanceNZ$52.00
  • Match 47,570≈ 7.8k by chanceNZ$31.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus10,448≈ 10k by chanceNZ$22.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈3.8M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 7,570 winners, 3% fewer than the 7.8k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 61NZ$1,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus7NZ$15,783
    Match 5180NZ$638
    Match 4 + Bonus529NZ$52.00
    Match 47,570NZ$31.00
    Match 3 + Bonus10,448NZ$22.00
    Match 30—
    Totals0—