Sunday, 15 May 2016

Its nearest twin

Shares 2 of 6 numbers (18, 34) and 1 of 1 stars with the draw of 11 May 2016 — its closest relative in 20 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 99% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (14 May 2016): nothing carried over. Chance says 66% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (3% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 129 — the 63th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 120. Side-by-side numbers: 18–19, 25–26. 59% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

19 had not appeared for 11 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 11% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.