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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
UK Lotto · draw
ResultUK Lotto
Jackpot£4,860,682
The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules6/49 + 1/49 · Nov 1994 – Oct 2015draw 1,438 of 2,065 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
UK Lotto was a 6/49 + 1/49 · Nov 1994 – Oct 2015 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 1,437 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 3 October 2009 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 54 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 53% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 176 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 1,437 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 6 numbers (21, 23, 46) with the draw of 10 June 2009 — its closest relative in 1,437 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (30 September 2009): 36 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 172 — the 74th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. No two numbers side by side. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →14 had not appeared for 26 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 58% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈29M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 2 — 0 winners, 100% fewer than the 3.9M an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 2 | 0 | £2.00 |
| Match 3 | 482,138 | £10.00 |
| Match 4 | 24,607 | £83.00 |
| Match 5 | 394 | £2,372 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 10 | £149,559 |
| Match 6 | 2 | £2,430,341 |