Thursday, 20 July 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (7, 10, 27, 46) with the draw of 21 May 2014 — its closest relative in 2,279 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 22% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (19 July 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 101 — the 20th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. Side-by-side numbers: 10–11. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

7 had not appeared for 22 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.7× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 4% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.