Tuesday, 11 July 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (6, 21, 41) with the draw of 25 April 2019 — its closest relative in 2,272 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (8 July 2023): 6 carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 104 — the 22th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. No two numbers side by side. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

41 had not appeared for 15 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 6% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.