Friday, 5 August 2022

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (2, 3, 38) with the draw of 5 March 2022 — its closest relative in 2,030 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (4 August 2022): nothing carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 82 — the 7th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. Side-by-side numbers: 2–3. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

15 had not appeared for 18 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 5% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.