Friday, 30 April 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (39, 42, 44) with the draw of 14 April 2021 — its closest relative in 1,700 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (29 April 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 169 — the 90th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. No two numbers side by side. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

7 had not appeared for 16 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 15% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.