Saturday, 17 October 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (18, 21, 46, 49) with the draw of 30 June 2016 — its closest relative in 1,561 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 15% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (16 October 2020): nothing carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 166 — the 89th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. No two numbers side by side. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

18 had not appeared for 35 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 13% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.