Wednesday, 7 August 2019

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (45, 46, 48) with the draw of 25 June 2019 — its closest relative in 1,248 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (6 August 2019): 40 carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 203 — the 99th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. Side-by-side numbers: 45–46. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

48 had not appeared for 24 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.4× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 18% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.