Saturday, 2 May 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (4, 24, 48) with the draw of 12 February 2014 — its closest relative in 206 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 63% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (29 April 2015): 4 carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 154 — the 79th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. Side-by-side numbers: 48–49. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

49 had not appeared for 27 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 9% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.