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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Loto · draw

Saturday, 11 December 2021

ResultLoto

VerifiedDraw #20211148
  1. 16
  2. 26
  3. 34
  4. 42
  5. 45
  6. 9

Jackpot€4,000,000

The crowdHeld 18% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/49 + 1/10 · since Oct 2008draw 2,063 of 3,001 under them

← 2021-12-08All recent draws2021-12-13 →

Where this result came from

Sources2 independent sources agree, 1 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Secondary 3official16 26 34 42 45 + 923 Aug 2026, 15:48 UTC
  • Primarycommercial feed16 26 34 42 45 + 929 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 11 December 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

34oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 34 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 14% of every possible ticket.

  • sum89th
  • odd9th
  • low9th
  • widest gap12th
  • neighbours32th
  • spread29th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 210 of each

16222times
26220times
34196times
42199times
45

Prize breakdown · 2021-12-11

  • Lines in play≈ 4.7Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out€4.2Mto 876k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 5lines took a prize
  • rang10 winnerschance said 0.24

Where the money went

  • rang612%€494.5K
  • rang836%€1.5M
  • rang927%€1.2M
  • 5 other tiers25%€1.1M
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1M10MPrize each
  1. rang10≈ 0.24 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

201times
Stars · a separate 1-of-10 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 206 of each

9214times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,062 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (16, 26, 42) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 20 October 2021 — its closest relative in 2,062 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (8 December 2021): 16, 26 carried over. Chance says 43% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

163

The numbers add up to 163 — the 89th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 125. No two numbers side by side. 36% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

45 had not appeared for 35 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 12% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
€4,000,000
  • rang24≈ 2.2 by chance€65,300
  • rang351≈ 54 by chance€1,250
  • rang4437≈ 484 by chance€526
  • rang52,259≈ 2.3k by chance€60.80
  • rang620,434≈ 21k by chance€24.20
  • rang732,706≈ 32k by chance€11.70
  • rang8291,506≈ 292k by chance€5.20
  • rang9528,738€2.20
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈4.7M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: rang5 — 2,259 winners, 2% fewer than the 2.3k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    rang10€4,000,000
    rang24€65,300
    rang351€1,250
    rang4437€526
    rang52,259€60.80
    rang620,434€24.20
    rang732,706€11.70
    rang8291,506€5.20
    rang9528,738€2.20