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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Loto · draw

Monday, 21 September 2020

ResultLoto

VerifiedDraw #20200114
  1. 16
  2. 19
  3. 38
  4. 41
  5. 46
  6. 9

Jackpot€3,000,000

The crowdHeld 17% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/49 + 1/10 · since Oct 2008draw 1,872 of 3,001 under them

← 2020-09-19All recent draws2020-09-23 →

Where this result came from

Sources2 independent sources agree, 1 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Secondary 3official16 19 38 41 46 + 923 Aug 2026, 15:48 UTC
  • Primarycommercial feed16 19 38 41 46 + 929 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 21 September 2020 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

58oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 58 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 67% of every possible ticket.

  • sum87th
  • odd32th
  • low32th
  • widest gap68th
  • neighbours32th
  • spread33th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 191 of each

16206times
19171times
38203times
41225times
46

Prize breakdown · 2020-09-21

  • Lines in play≈ 2.5Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out€2.2Mto 457k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 5lines took a prize
  • rang10 winnerschance said 0.13

Where the money went

  • rang612%€263.5K
  • rang836%€803.7K
  • rang927%€603.7K
  • 4 other tiers26%€574.0K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1M10MPrize each
  1. rang10≈ 0.13 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

186times
Stars · a separate 1-of-10 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 187 of each

9187times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,871 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (16, 19, 38, 46) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 29 October 2012 — its closest relative in 1,871 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 19% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (19 September 2020): 46 carried over. Chance says 43% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

160

The numbers add up to 160 — the 87th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 125. No two numbers side by side. 36% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

41 had not appeared for 16 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 12% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
€3,000,000
  • rang20≈ 1.2 by chance€139,518
  • rang332≈ 29 by chance€5,424
  • rang4214≈ 257 by chance€574
  • rang51,123≈ 1.2k by chance€65.30
  • rang69,982≈ 11k by chance€26.40
  • rang717,167≈ 17k by chance€11.90
  • rang8154,559≈ 155k by chance€5.20
  • rang9274,392€2.20
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈2.5M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: rang6 — 9,982 winners, 10% fewer than the 11k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    rang10€3,000,000
    rang20€139,518
    rang332€5,424
    rang4214€574
    rang51,123€65.30
    rang69,982€26.40
    rang717,167€11.90
    rang8154,559€5.20
    rang9274,392€2.20