Saturday, 22 August 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (4, 29, 49) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 4 July 2015 — its closest relative in 1,076 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (19 August 2015): nothing carried over. Chance says 43% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 121 — the 44th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 125. Side-by-side numbers: 19–20. 36% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

19 had not appeared for 22 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 5% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.