Monday, 17 January 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (21, 36, 49) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 19 June 2010 — its closest relative in 357 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 84% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (15 January 2011): 36 carried over. Chance says 43% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 178 — the 96th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 125. Side-by-side numbers: 48–49. 36% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

48 had not appeared for 29 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 12% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.