Wednesday, 22 July 2009

Its nearest twin

Shares 2 of 5 numbers (17, 35) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 11 July 2009 — its closest relative in 124 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (20 July 2009): nothing carried over. Chance says 43% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 149 — the 78th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 125. No two numbers side by side. 36% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

24 had not appeared for 17 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.7× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 9% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.