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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Ontario 49 · every number · star deck
In Ontario 49 under the 6/49 + 1/46 · Sep 2024 – Nov 2025 rules — 120 draws, 1 from 1–46 (an earlier era).
Drawn 1 times in 120 draws against 2.6 expected, −1.01σ. Each draw is independent: after 26 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 1 times in 120 draws · waiting 26 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Too few completed waits to plot a distribution for this number alone.
Sort a draw and 2 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
No shared draws yet.
Never drawn alongside 45 of the other 45 numbers; chance expects about 45 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 2 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 46. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-20 | — | 1st | 2 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 2 is drawn with probability 1/46 tonight whatever it did last week.